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2 Things the European Investment Grade Fixed Income Team Talked About Last Week

14/02/2017

1. The French Connection The major talking point in European Investment Grade Fixed Income markets last week was the sudden and violent widening of non-core markets against Germany. It was most evident in France, but also occurred in Italy, Portugal and Greece (the latter for very idiosyncratic reasons to be fair). The primary cause of… Read More ›

3 Things the European Investment Grade Fixed Income Team Talked About Last Week

1. Euro-area Inflation: Frankfurt – We Have A Problem We mentioned in last week’s blog about the likelihood that Euro-area inflation would show a significant increase when the January numbers were released. We began to get an indication that the number might be quite strong when Spain’s inflation number topped 3%, but even we were… Read More ›

Key Risks for the USD Bull Market in 2017

Part three in a series. Paresh Upadhyaya is Senior Vice President, Director of Currencies, US.  In my previous posts, I discussed the three factors that will fuel the USD rally in 2017: fiscal stimulus proposal (USD Bull Market: Key Drivers in 2017), US rate normalization and idiosyncratic factors (A 2017 USD Bull Market? More Factors… Read More ›

3 Things the European Investment Grade Fixed Income Team Talked About Last Week

1. A Week is a Long Time in Politics We spent a part of last week’s blog discussing the UK Supreme Court’s verdict on triggering Article 50, and the first round of the French Socialist elections. Given all that happened last week, we thought it appropriate to share our thoughts on market implications. In the… Read More ›

China: How to Get to 2020?

Qinwei Wang is an Economist. One of the major debates on the future of China relates to the potential growth with some pundits predicting a sharp and unavoidable  fall in Chinese growth throughout 2020. We have looked into the causes behind China’s slowdown in recent years and it appears that some common concerns about the country’s… Read More ›

Three Supporting Factors and One Major Concern for 2017

Qinwei Wang is an Economist. China’s economy has held up relatively well so far, after strong concerns one year ago. We expect some slowdown in 2017, but this should be less painful than in 2015. Let’s see the three supporting factors for China in 2017 and the major risk to watch. A more benign commodity outlook:… Read More ›

A 2017 USD Bull Market? More Factors to Consider.

Part two in a series. Paresh Upadhyaya is Senior Vice President, Director of Currencies, US.  In my last post, USD Bull Market: Key Drivers in 2017, I discussed the first of three drivers of the US dollar (USD) bull market: fiscal stimulus. Here I’ll examine the second two: rate normalization and idiosyncratic factors. US Rate Normalization… Read More ›

USD Bull Market: Key Drivers in 2017

Part one in a series. Paresh Upadhyaya is Senior Vice President, Director of Currencies, US. The US dollar (USD) bull market entered its fourth consecutive year in 2016 and we believe factors are aligning for the rally to enter its fifth consecutive year, a potentially significant one. There are three factors that will fuel the… Read More ›

3 Things the European Investment Grade Fixed Income Team Talked About Last Week

1. Brexit – Theresa May seeks BAFTA for La La Land performance  In last week’s blog, we highlighted an important speech to be given by UK Prime Minister Theresa May on her vision for how the UK would manage Brexit and life after membership of the European Union. On the positive side, her speech (delivered… Read More ›

EM: Trump, Jump, Pump or Dump?

Alessia Berardi is a Senior Economist in charge of providing analysis on macroeconomic issues. Macroeconomic conditions in Emerging Markets (EMs) are much better today than they were at the end of 2015 or the beginning of 2016. In line with our 2016 Outlook, macroeconomic conditions kept improving, supported by a benign external environment led by increasing… Read More ›